Vladimir Putin’s new red line on long-range missiles

The headline on this morning’s Kommersant newspaper captured the drama.

“Vladimir Putin attracts his purple line.”

Will the West cross it? And, if it does, how will Russia reply?

Talking in St Petersburg, President Putin despatched a transparent warning to the West: don’t enable Ukraine to make use of your long-range missiles to strike Russian territory.

Moscow, he mentioned, would view that because the “direct participation” of Nato nations within the struggle in Ukraine.

“It might considerably change the very essence, the character of the battle,” the Kremlin chief continued.

“It will imply that Nato nations, the USA and European states, are preventing with Russia.”

He claimed that, for missile launches into Russia, Ukraine would require knowledge from Western satellites and that solely servicemen from Nato member states would be capable to “enter flight missions into these missile programs”.

Russia has drawn purple strains earlier than. And seen them crossed earlier than.

On 24 February 2022, when he introduced the beginning of his “particular army operation” – the full-scale invasion of Ukraine – President Putin issued a warning to “those that could also be tempted to intervene from the skin”.

“Regardless of who tries to face in our approach or create threats for our nation and our individuals, they have to know that Russia will reply instantly,” the Kremlin chief had declared.

“And the implications will probably be similar to you’ve got by no means seen in your total historical past.”

Western leaders ignored what was extensively interpreted on the time as nuclear sabre-rattling. The West has since offered Ukraine with tanks, superior missile programs and, most lately, F-16 American fighter jets.

This yr Russia has already accused Ukraine of utilizing American long-range ATACMS missiles to focus on Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia.

What’s extra, over the past two years, Russian officers and the state media right here have on many events accused the West of “preventing Russia” or launching “a struggle” on Russia. Regardless that it was Russia that invaded Ukraine.

However from the tone of President Putin’s newest remarks, it’s clear he considers that the focusing on of internationally recognised Russian territory with Western missile programs would take the battle to a brand new stage.

What he didn’t clarify yesterday is how Moscow would reply.

“We are going to take corresponding selections based mostly on the threats to us that will probably be created,” Vladimir Putin mentioned.

On Friday, Russia withdrew the accreditation of six British diplomats, accusing them of “subversive actions” and threatening Russia’s safety.

However Putin’s potential response is far broader. He provided some clues again in June.

At a gathering with the heads of worldwide information companies, he was requested: how would Russia react if Ukraine was given the chance to hit targets on Russian territory with weapons provided by Europe?

“First, we’ll, after all, enhance our air defence programs. We will probably be destroying their missiles,” President Putin replied.

“Second, we imagine that if somebody is considering it’s potential to produce such weapons to a struggle zone to strike our territory and create issues for us, why can’t we provide our weapons of the identical class to these areas all over the world the place they’ll goal delicate amenities of the nations which might be doing this to Russia?”

In different phrases, arming Western adversaries to strike Western targets overseas is one thing that Moscow has been contemplating.

Earlier this month, Russia’s deputy international minister, Sergei Ryabkov, introduced that Russia was set to revise its nuclear doctrine: the doc that lays out beneath what circumstances Moscow might think about using nuclear weapons.

He urged that the choice to revise the doctrine was “linked with the escalation course of [Russia’s] Western adversaries”.

In the meantime, Sir Keir Starmer is in Washington for talks with President Biden. Among the many points the 2 leaders are anticipated to debate is the query of Ukraine and long-range missiles.

“Russia began this battle. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine,” Sir Keir mentioned on his approach to Washington. “Russia can finish this battle right away.”

Western leaders might want to resolve which they think about larger: the chance of escalation of this battle, or the necessity to elevate restrictions on Ukraine’s use of western missiles.