Steve Rosenberg: Ukraine’s advance undermines Putin’s image as ‘Mr Security’

Kursk.

It is among the first phrases I wrote and spoke as a BBC correspondent.

In 2000, I reported on the sinking of the Kursk submarine within the icy waters of the Barents Sea. 100 and eighteen submariners have been killed.

Vladimir Putin had been president for lower than half a yr. I can nonetheless keep in mind Russian TV channels slamming him over his dealing with of the catastrophe.

This week marked 24 years since Ok-141 Kursk sank. And, as soon as once more, the phrase Kursk is filling my despatches from Russia. This time Kursk Area, the place Ukrainian troops launched their shock incursion and the place they’ve been seizing territory for 9 days now.

Similar phrase.

However Russia 2024 could be very totally different from Russia 2000.

This time on Russian TV there isn’t any trace of criticism of President Putin; no casting doubt on his decision-making; no suggestion that it’s his invasion of Ukraine that has led to this dramatic second. Then once more, the Kremlin has had 1 / 4 of a century to ascertain tight management over the Russian media and the messaging.

Even so, will these occasions injury Vladimir Putin?

It’s a query I’ve been requested many instances over the past two-and-a-half years:

• In 2022 when Ukraine sank the warship Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
• once more a number of months later after Russian troops’ lightning retreat from north-eastern Ukraine
• and once more in 2023 in the course of the Wagner mutiny, when armed mercenaries have been marching on Moscow – a direct problem to Vladimir Putin’s authority.

President Putin bought by all of that, apparently unscathed. He can be assured he can overcome this newest problem.

However right here’s the factor. The Wagner mutiny was over in a day.

Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia has been happening for greater than per week. The longer it continues, the larger the strain can be on the Russian management and, doubtlessly, the larger the injury to President Putin’s authority.

By way of his two and a half many years in energy, Mr Putin has cultivated the picture of “Mr Safety“, the one man on this huge nation able to holding Russians protected and safe.

His so-called “particular navy operation” (the full-scale invasion of Ukraine) was introduced to the Russian individuals as a means of boosting Russia’s nationwide safety.

Two and a half years into this battle there isn’t a lot signal right here of “protected and safe”.

There may be extra Nato on Russia’s borders, with Sweden and Finland having joined the Nato Alliance; Russian cities are coming below common Ukrainian drone assault; now Ukrainian troopers are seizing Russian territory.

By way of his alternative of language, Vladimir Putin is making an attempt to point out the Russian public that there isn’t any have to panic.

When referring to the Ukrainian incursion he has averted utilizing the phrase “invasion”. As an alternative, he has spoken of “the scenario within the border space” or “the occasions which can be happening”. The Kremlin chief has additionally known as the Ukrainian offensive “a provocation”.

What’s going to the Russian president do subsequent?

Don’t count on him to select up the cellphone and name Kyiv. Russian officers have made it clear that, following the Ukrainian assault, they’re placing the very concept of peace talks on maintain.

Not that any large-scale negotiation had been scheduled to happen.

In reality, this week Vladimir Putin chief introduced precisely what his intention is: “…to power the enemy from Russian territory.”

It’s one factor saying it. It’s one other factor doing it. Regardless of deploying reinforcements to the Kursk area, the Russian navy has but to regain management on this a part of Russia.

As I used to be strolling previous the Kremlin on Thursday morning, I ended in my tracks.

As employees have been organising seating and screens for an occasion, Edith Piaf’s traditional Non, je ne regrette rien (No, I remorse nothing) was enjoying on a big video display and echoing throughout Crimson Sq..

It was a really surreal second.

Vladimir Putin has proven no signal of remorse for having launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

No remorse for the choices he has taken since.

If his public statements replicate his present way of thinking, he nonetheless believes there is just one potential end result of this battle: Russia’s victory.