Sheikh Hasina poses a Bangladesh conundrum for India

It’s been practically a month since former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina hurriedly landed at a navy base close to Delhi after a chaotic exit from her nation.

Ms Hasina’s dramatic ouster on 5 August adopted weeks of student-led protests which spiralled into lethal, nationwide unrest. She was initially anticipated to remain in India for only a quick interval, however reviews say her makes an attempt to hunt asylum within the UK, the US and the UAE haven’t been profitable to date.

Her continued presence in India has generated challenges for Delhi in creating a robust relationship with the brand new interim authorities in Dhaka. 

For India, Bangladesh isn’t just any neighbouring nation. It is a strategic companion and an in depth ally essential to India’s border safety, notably within the north-eastern states. 

The 2 international locations share a porous border 4,096km (2,545 miles) lengthy which makes it comparatively simple for armed rebel teams from India’s north-eastern states to cross into Bangladesh for a protected haven. 

After Ms Hasina’s Awami League occasion got here to energy in 2009, it cracked down on a few of these ethnic militant teams. Ms Hasina additionally amicably settled a number of border disputes with India.  

Whereas border safety is on the core of the connection, there are monetary points too. Throughout Ms Hasina’s 15-year rule, commerce relations and connectivity between the 2 international locations flourished. India has gained street, river and prepare entry by way of Bangladesh to move items to its north-eastern states. 

Since 2010, India has additionally given greater than $7bn (£5.3bn) as a line of credit score to Bangladesh for infrastructure and growth tasks. 

Ms Hasina’s sudden exit implies that Delhi has to work onerous to make sure that these positive aspects usually are not misplaced. 

“It’s a setback within the sense that any turbulence in our neighbourhood is at all times undesirable,” says Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former Indian Excessive Commissioner in Dhaka. 

However the former diplomat insists that Delhi will work with the interim authorities in Dhaka as a result of “there isn’t any alternative” and “you may’t dictate what they do internally”. 

The Indian authorities has wasted no time in reaching out to the interim authorities in Dhaka, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding a phone dialog with chief Muhammad Yunus.

Nevertheless, it can take some time for Delhi to assuage the anger in Bangladesh over its unwavering help for Ms Hasina and her Awami League for the final 15 years.  

Many Bangladeshis attribute the anger in opposition to India to Delhi’s swift endorsement of three controversial elections received by Ms Hasina’s occasion amid allegations of widespread vote-rigging. 

With Ms Hasina’s fall, Delhi’s “neighbourhood first” coverage has taken one other jolt with Bangladesh becoming a member of the Maldives and Nepal in resisting any try at dominance by India. 

Analysts say that Delhi can’t afford to lose its affect in one other neighbouring nation if it desires to guard its standing as a regional powerhouse – particularly as rival China can also be jostling for affect within the area. 

Simply final 12 months, Mohamed Muizzu received the presidency within the Maldives on the again of his very public anti-India stand. 

“It’s time for India to do some introspection concerning its regional coverage,” says Debapriya Bhattacharya, a senior economist with the Centre for Coverage Dialogue in Dhaka.

Delhi wants to have a look at whether or not it has adequately taken on board the views of its regional companions, he says.

“I’m not solely speaking about Bangladesh, [but also] virtually all different international locations within the area,” provides Mr Bhattacharya, who heads a committee appointed by the interim authorities to organize a white paper on the state of Bangladesh’s financial system.

For instance, within the case of Bangladesh, analysts level out that successive Indian governments have failed to have interaction with different opposition events, notably the Bangladesh Nationalist Get together (BNP). 

“India by some means thought that the Awami League and its authorities are the one allies inside Bangladesh. That was a strategic blunder,” says Abdul Moyeen Khan, a senior chief of the BNP.  

If free and honest elections are held in Bangladesh within the coming months, BNP leaders are assured of victory.

That can pose a diplomatic problem for Delhi. There’s a perceived belief deficit between India and the BNP, which is led by Begum Khaleda Zia, who had been prime minister for 2 phrases earlier. 

Ms Zia, who spent most of her time in jail since 2018, has at all times denied corruption costs in opposition to her and has accused Ms Hasina of political vendetta. She has now been launched from jail and is recovering from her sickness.  

Within the coming days, Delhi and the BNP leaders must discover a method to work previous their variations.

In the course of the earlier BNP-led coalition authorities from 2001 to 2006, the bilateral relationship deteriorated with Delhi accusing Dhaka of harbouring insurgents from India’s north-east.

Throughout Ms Zia’s rule, Hindu leaders in Bangladesh mentioned there have been a series of attacks in opposition to them – together with homicide, looting and rape – by Islamist events and the BNP which started because the election outcomes have been introduced in 2001. 

The BNP denies the fees of giving shelter to anti-Indian insurgents and in addition of finishing up assaults on minority Hindus in 2001.

BNP leaders, together with Mr Khan, say India hasn’t been forthcoming in partaking with them, including that “now it’s time for a coverage shift in Delhi”.  

He additionally stresses that given India’s proximity, dimension and its rising financial and navy would possibly, his occasion is not going to make the error of harbouring any anti-Indian insurgents.

There are different elements additionally behind the anger in opposition to India. India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers and the sharing of water sources is a contentious challenge.

The current floods triggered by heavy rains in japanese Bangladesh are an instance of how misinformation can gasoline suspicions between the 2 international locations. 

Following a sudden heavy downpour within the Indian state of Tripura, the surplus water flowed into the Gumti river – which flows between the 2 international locations – inundating huge areas contained in the state in addition to downstream in neighbouring Bangladesh.  

Thousands and thousands of individuals have been affected with many shedding their homes, belongings and farmland. Many villagers and social media customers accused India of intentionally releasing water from a dam within the evening, resulting in the floods. 

The Indian exterior affairs ministry was pressured to issue a statement denying this, explaining that the floods had been brought on by heavy rains within the catchment areas of the Gumti river. 

Then there may be one other issue – China. Beijing is eager to increase its footprint in Bangladesh because it battles for regional supremacy with India. 

It rolled out the crimson carpet for Mr Muizzu when he selected China for his first state go to after successful the Maldives election.

Delhi would need to keep away from the identical destiny with Bangladesh. And it will hope that Bangladesh’s reliance on Indian items and commerce will purchase it a while to work out its diplomatic technique and alter its picture. 

So Delhi must tread fastidiously round Ms Hasina’s presence in India, particularly if the brand new authorities makes a proper extradition request.

A statement issued on her behalf by her son Sajeeb Wazed Pleasure final month had already stoked anger in Bangladesh. 

However India wouldn’t need to ask Ms Hasina to go away the nation when her future stays unsure and are available throughout as leaving a formidable former ally within the lurch. 

“It doesn’t matter how she is accorded hospitality in India. But it surely issues to Bangladeshis how she intervenes within the home issues staying over there. If she speaks in opposition to the present interim authorities, that might be thought of as an act of hostility,” Mr Bhattacharya warned.  

Diplomats in Delhi will hope that Ms Hasina makes a alternative for herself with out forcing India’s hand.