Modi in Ukraine: Diplomatic tightrope for Indian PM as he visits Kyiv after Moscow

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Ukraine on Friday, simply weeks after he met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

The go to is critical as a result of Kyiv and a few Western capitals had reacted sharply to Mr Modi’s visit to the Russian capital in July.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky was notably vital, saying he was “disenchanted to see the chief of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody legal in Moscow”.

So, is Mr Modi visiting Kyiv to placate Mr Zelensky and different Western leaders?

Not fully.

It’s not shocking to see India stability its relations between two competing nations or blocs. The nation’s famed non-alignment strategy to geopolitics has served it properly for many years.

This week’s go to – the primary by an Indian prime minister to Ukraine – is extra about signalling that whereas India will proceed to have robust relations with Russia, it’ll nonetheless work intently with the West.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute on the Wilson Centre think-tank in Washington, says the journey will additional reassert India’s strategic autonomy.

“India isn’t within the enterprise of placating Western powers, or anybody for that matter. It’s a visit meant to advance Indian pursuits, by reasserting friendship with Kyiv and conveying its considerations concerning the persevering with warfare,” he says.

Nevertheless, the timing of the go to does mirror that Indian diplomats have taken onboard the sharp reactions from the US to Mr Modi’s Moscow go to.

India has refrained from directly criticising Russia over the warfare, a lot to the annoyance of Western powers.

Delhi, nevertheless, has typically spoken concerning the significance of respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty of countries. It has constantly pushed for diplomacy and dialogue to finish the warfare.

Mr Modi’s Moscow go to in July got here hours after Russian bombing killed no less than 41 folks in Ukraine, together with at a kids’s hospital in Kyiv, sparking a world outcry.

The Indian PM mentioned the demise of youngsters was painful and terrifying however stopped wanting blaming Russia.

Mr Modi just isn’t more likely to deviate from this stance throughout his go to to Kyiv. The US and different Western nations have grown to simply accept Delhi’s stand, given India’s time-tested relationship with Moscow and its reliance on Russian army gear.

India, the world’s largest importer of arms, has diversified its defence import portfolio and in addition grown home manufacturing in recent times nevertheless it nonetheless buys greater than 50% of its defence gear from Russia.

India has additionally elevated its oil imports from Russia, making the most of cheaper costs supplied by Moscow – Russia was the highest oil provider to India final 12 months.

The US and its allies have typically implored India to take a clearer stand on the warfare however they’ve additionally kept away from making use of harsh sanctions or strain.

The West additionally sees India as a counterbalance to China and doesn’t need to upset that dynamic. India, now the fifth largest financial system on this planet, can also be a rising marketplace for enterprise.

Mr Kugelman says the West will welcome the go to and see it as Delhi’s willingness to have interaction with all sides.

“Mr Modi has a powerful incentive to sign that it’s not leaning so near Moscow that there’s nothing to salvage with Kyiv,” he says.

That is necessary as a result of India desires to continue to grow its relations with the West, notably with the US, and would not need to upset the momentum. Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, lately mentioned the connection shouldn’t be “taken with no consideration”.

India additionally wants the West as China, its Asian rival, and Russia have cast shut ties in recent times.

Whereas Delhi has lengthy considered Moscow as an influence that may put strain on an assertive China when wanted, it may’t be taken with no consideration.

In the meantime, many media commentators have spoken about the potential for Mr Modi positioning himself as a peacemaker, given India’s shut relations with each Moscow and the West.

However it’s unlikely that he’ll flip up with a peace plan.

“Is India actually as much as it, and are the circumstances proper? India doesn’t like different international locations attempting to mediate in its personal points, chief amongst them Kashmir. And I don’t assume Mr Modi would formally supply mediation except each Russia and Ukraine need it. And at this level, I don’t assume they do,” Mr Kugelman provides.

Ukraine, nevertheless, will nonetheless welcome Mr Modi’s go to and see it as a chance to have interaction with an in depth ally of Moscow, one thing it hasn’t achieved a lot for the reason that warfare started.

Mr Zelensky, although, is unlikely to carry again his criticism of Mr Putin in entrance of the Indian PM. Mr Modi can dwell with that as he has confronted such conditions many instances in different Western capitals.

Moscow just isn’t more likely to react to the go to because it has additionally been making concessions for Delhi’s multilateral strategy to geopolitics.

However past reasserting its non-alignment coverage, Delhi additionally has greater objectives from this go to.

India has been ramping up engagement with Europe previously decade, notably with the underserved areas in Central and Jap Europe.

Delhi desires to maintain consolidating its relations with the massive 4 – the UK, Italy, Germany and France – but additionally desires to spice up engagement with different international locations in Europe.

Mr Modi can also be visiting Poland on this journey – the primary Indian PM to go to the nation in 45 years. He additionally grew to become the primary Indian prime minister to go to Austria in 41 years in July.

Analysts say that this alerts India’s rising understanding that Central European nations will play an even bigger function in geopolitics sooner or later and powerful relations with them will serve Delhi properly.

The Indian authorities has additionally revived commerce deal negotiations with Europe. It has signed a commerce and funding cope with the European Free Commerce Affiliation, which is the intergovernmental organisation of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

So, whereas there will likely be a whole lot of give attention to the warfare throughout his go to, Indian diplomats are more likely to keep centered on the larger purpose.

“Central and Jap Europe now have larger company in writing their very own future and reshaping regional geopolitics. Mr Modi’s go to to Warsaw and Kyiv is about recognising that momentous change on the coronary heart of Europe and deepening bilateral political, financial and safety ties with the Central European states,” overseas coverage analyst C Raja Mohan wrote in the Indian Express newspaper, summing up Mr Modi’s wider purpose.