Australia wants to become a renewable energy superpower. Can it?

Hidden amongst thick bushland within the outer suburbs of southern Sydney sits an expansive facility housing a technological breakthrough.

It’s right here that Australian firm SunDrive Photo voltaic makes its “particular sauce”: a brand new – high secret – method that it says has solved “a really excessive worth drawback”.

Its huge innovation? Discovering a option to substitute the silver utilized in photo voltaic cells with copper, which was beforehand thought inconceivable.

“Silver is dear, scarce and environmentally disastrous, and it limits how a lot photo voltaic might be rolled out around the globe,” explains chief industrial officer Maia Schweizer.

“Copper can also be extremely in demand, but it surely’s 1,000 occasions extra considerable, and 100 occasions decrease value.”

The beginning-up is without doubt one of the beneficiaries of the federal government’s Future Made in Australia plan – a set of insurance policies that intention to show the nation right into a “renewable power superpower” by investing in homegrown inexperienced industries.

However some specialists query whether or not the $A22.7bn ($15bn; £11.8bn) bundle, which includes tax incentives, loans, and kick-starter grants – is sufficient to meet these lofty ambitions.

And local weather scientists say that if Australia needs to be a significant participant within the web zero transition, it must cease peddling fossil fuels.

Australia’s financial system has lengthy been powered by its pure sources, comparable to coal, fuel and iron ore.

However its vital minerals – a lot of which underpin essential low emissions applied sciences – are exported uncooked, and refined overseas, predominantly by China.

It’s a dig-and-ship mannequin of commerce that has earned Australia a popularity because the world’s quarry, and seen it lose out on a major chunk of change additional up the provision chain.

Lithium – which is used within the batteries that retailer renewable power and energy electrical autos – is one instance.

Regardless of being chargeable for greater than half of the world’s provide, Australia captures simply 0.5% of the worldwide $57bn lithium battery market, based on the nation’s nationwide science company.

The Future Made in Australia coverage – which was formally introduced in April – seeks to vary that, by providing tax breaks and loans to corporations looking for to course of vital minerals at dwelling.

Doing so, the federal government argues, is a nationwide safety precedence, as nations study their commerce dependence on Beijing, and look to insulate themselves in opposition to provide chain shocks.

“This isn’t old school protectionism or isolationism – it’s the new competitors,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated, when saying the plan.

“We have to intention excessive, be daring, and construct huge, to match the dimensions of the chance in entrance of us.”

Queensland-based Alpha HPA is without doubt one of the corporations the federal government has tapped to execute its imaginative and prescient.

Like SunDrive, it views itself as a disruptor, on account of its capability to create ultra-high purity aluminium merchandise – utilized in issues like semiconductors and iPhones – with a decrease carbon footprint than abroad opponents.

Due to a A$400m federal mortgage, it’s constructing one of many world’s largest alumina refineries close to the coastal metropolis of Gladstone, which it says will create a whole bunch of native jobs.

It’s an enormous supply of delight, given that there’s nonetheless scepticism over whether or not Australia could make issues, after a long time of outsourcing its manufacturing to China, Alpha HPA’s chief working officer Rob Williamson says.

“Anyone that places ahead the case that we do not have individuals on this nation to do [this work] is simply not making an attempt,” he provides.

SunDrive is on an identical journey.

With out authorities help, Ms Schweizer says, the corporate may need moved offshore.

As a substitute, it is seeking to remodel one of many nation’s oldest coal energy stations into an enormous photo voltaic panel manufacturing hub.

At the moment, one in three Australian households have photo voltaic panels, the very best price on the planet, and but only one% are made regionally – with China chargeable for more than 80% of world manufacturing.

“Each single mineral that it is advisable to make a photo voltaic panel, we have one of many high three reserves on the planet,” Ms Schweizer explains.

“Now there’s the potential for the end-to-end worth chain coming onshore in Australia for the primary time, which is tremendous, tremendous thrilling.”

The Made in Australia pledge has received the help of the nation’s greatest renewable power business commerce our bodies, who say the investments could possibly be “game changing”.

“It’s a giant alternative for us to be an exporter of local weather options to the world as an alternative of local weather issues,” John Grimes, who heads the Sensible Vitality Council, says.

However some local weather specialists warn it’s being “severely undermined” by the federal government’s latest resolution to champion gas until 2050 and beyond regardless of international calls to quickly section out fossil fuels.

“We’re sending a extremely blended message to traders,” says Polly Hemming, the director of the Australia Institute’s local weather and power programme.

“This authorities has continued to approve new fuel and coal tasks – it is flown to Japan, India, Korea, and Vietnam to safe long-term markets for fuel and coal.

“If we actually needed to be a inexperienced power superpower, we wouldn’t be relentlessly pursuing prospects for our fossil fuels,” she says.

One of many nation’s main local weather scientists agrees.

“There’s a very deep contradiction on the coronary heart of the 2 insurance policies,” says Prof Invoice Hare, chief government of Local weather Analytics and creator of quite a few UN local weather change experiences.

“The Future Made in Australia [plan] is enjoying second fiddle to the federal government’s fuel technique.”

To know how, Ms Hemming says it is advisable to “comply with the cash”.

Based on an evaluation from her thinktank, final yr alone, state and federal governments spent A$14.5bn subsidising fossil gas use throughout Australia, and that sum is simply anticipated to balloon, based on funds estimates.

Against this, she says the A$13.7bn put aside to course of vital minerals and incubate Australia’s nascent green hydrogen business “isn’t actual cash”.

That’s as a result of it’ll take the type of tax breaks over the course of a decade, which can only be cashed in on manufacturing ranging from 2027 – a mannequin which policymakers say will guarantee taxpayers’ cash is just not wasted.

However all of the inexperienced hydrogen tasks – a lot of that are being led by the nation’s largest mining and power corporations – are but to be constructed. And the incentives could possibly be scrapped earlier than they get off the bottom if there’s a change in authorities.

“It’s like me having a wholesome consuming and junk meals coverage operating on the identical time in my dwelling and telling my youngsters, ‘You possibly can have $10 per week now if you happen to hold consuming junk meals’,” says Ms Hemming.

“Or, ‘I will offer you $2 in 2027 if you happen to swap to broccoli’. What do you suppose they will prioritise?”

Some power specialists have additionally solid doubt over the enterprise rationale behind inexperienced hydrogen – given the business continues to be in its infancy and riddled with unknowns.

Others fear it might divert funding away from the renewable energy sources which have already confirmed their value, leading to delayed local weather motion.

However Mr Grimes says that inexperienced hydrogen will play a necessary position in “stripping emissions” out of Australia’s carbon-intensive mining sector – as corporations search for low-cost inexperienced sources of gas to proceed powering their operations.

And larger image, he argues that the federal government’s new inexperienced investments ought to be assessed as “a milestone first step” moderately than an finish level.

“The federal government is aware of that if it doesn’t pivot past its exports of coal, fuel and iron ore quickly, Australia dangers turning into the Kodak financial system of the longer term: a giant deal someday and utterly irrelevant the subsequent.”

Australia isn’t the one nation seeking to place itself because the engine room of the brand new inexperienced financial system.

Dozens of countries are placing ahead formidable proposals, such because the European Union’s Inexperienced Deal or America’s gargantuan Inflation Discount Act.

Globally, policymakers have already invested over A$2tn in clear power initiatives since 2020, based on the Worldwide Vitality Company.

However Australia has some compelling pure benefits, comparable to enviable wind and photo voltaic capabilities, shops of vital minerals and uncommon earths, and a powerful mining infrastructure community that may be repurposed.

If used appropriately, all of the specialists the BBC spoke with agreed it has each likelihood of securing its place as a vital inexperienced buying and selling companion amongst allies.

Getting there although, they are saying, would require even better funding – notably in analysis and growth, which is at present at 30-year lows.

They usually’ve warned that the federal government can’t afford to tug its ft – some extent which Mr Albanese himself has addressed head on.

“We now have to get cracking. We now have limitless potential, however we do not need limitless time.

“If we don’t seize this second, it’ll cross. If we don’t take this opportunity, we received’t get one other. If we don’t act to form the longer term, the longer term will form us.”